Joe Stehly's Blog

High School Course Schedule

2011-01-04T18:48:00.001-08:00

The other night I tried to remember my high school class schedule to help me fall asleep. Below, you can see what I took through my four years of high school. I'm 98% certain that this is correct, except where noted.

Freshman Year

First Semester

1st Hour: Physical Science
2nd Hour: French I
3rd Hour: Algebra I
4th Hour: Challenge Language Arts
5th Hour: Design (an art class)
6th Hour: Economics (I think)

Second Semester

0 Hour: Typing
1st Hour: Computer Aided Drafting
2nd Hour: French I
3rd Hour: Algebra I
4th Hour: Political Science
5th Hour: Physical Science
6th Hour: Challenge Language Arts

Sophomore Year

First Semester

1st Block: Biology I
2nd Block: Computer Science
3rd Block: Geometry
4th Block: History (European, I think)

Second Semester

1st Block: Algebra II
2nd Block: Commercial Graphics/Health [one half semester of each]
3rd Block: French II
4th Block: Challenge Language Arts

Junior Year

First Semester

1st Block: Math/Trigonometry (I can't quite remember the name for the course)
2nd Block: Physics I
3rd Block: Chemistry I
4th Block: Statistics

Second Semester

1st Block: Chemistry II*
2nd Block: Challenge Language Arts
3rd Block: American History
4th Block: Weigh Training

Senior Year

First Semester

1st Block: Printmaking (art class)
2nd Block: AP Calculus*
3rd Block: Ceramics (another art class)
4th Block: Latin American History

Second Semester

1st Block: College Prep Language Arts* (can't remember the name)
2nd Block: AP Chemistry*
3rd Block: Psychology/Office Aid
4th Block: College Algebra* [don't let the name fool you, probably the best class to take before going into engineering school]

*Dual credit (high school + college) course

Waiting for Labor

2010-05-05T16:22:00.001-07:00

So, Monday morning the doctor told Sarah that she was eight hours into labor. He also said that active labor could start at anytime. Naturally, this got us excited since this is our first child. We proceed to get everything ready (at work and at home) and then start the long process of waiting.

We are now roughly 38 hours into early labor and still no contractions. The best way to describe how this feels is to compare it to when you are at an airport and your plan gets delayed with no indication of when you will take-off. You just wait around and look at the monitors occasionally.

Now we just have to be as patient as possible and enjoy these last moments with nothing to do.

How can Soccer Improve College Football? Part 1

2009-02-05T17:50:00.000-08:00

Everybody is talking about how we can fix the mess in collage football known as the BCS, including President Obama. Generally speaking, unless your favorite team is in the BCS title game you dislike the system.

The Europeans have an interesting system in place for the Champions League tournament (as do other European "football" championships and cups). The Champions League takes the best soccer club teams from each country's league and determines the champion of Europe.

Here is how it works:

76 teams from the 52 European soccer associations participate. The better quality leagues (as determined by a statistical system) send more teams. So the tournament is made up of the following:

Leagues 1-3 send their top four teams (12 teams)

Leagues 4-6 send their top three teams (9 teams)

Leagues 7-15 send their top two teams (18 teams)

Leagues 16-52 send their top one team (37 teams)

The tournament follows an interesting format and begins with three qualifying rounds.

Qualifying Round 1: The teams ranked 49-76 (lowest ranked) are randomly paired off into 14 match-ups. Each pair play two games against one another - one game at each team's home venue. The combined score, aggregate, determines the winner. If a tie exists after the 2nd game, tie-breakers are used to determine the winner. The 14 winners move on to the next round.

Qualifying Round 2: The teams ranked 35-48 and the 14 round 1 winners are randomly paired off into a new group of matches. The winners are determined just as they are in round 1. The 14 winners move on.

Qualifying Round 3: The teams ranked 17-34 (18 teams) are mixed with the 14 teams that qualified past round 2. This creates 16 games and 16 teams to move on to the Group Stage. The winners are again determined by an aggregate score.

Group Stage: This stage is made up of the 16 round 3 winners and the top 16 teams in the tournament (teams 1-16). The teams are split into eight groups of four teams. These teams play "round robbing" and the top two teams from each group advance to the first knockout round. Each team in a group plays everyone else in their group twice.

The rest of the tournament follows a typical structure. The teams are paired off in a bracket and then move to the quarter-finals, semi-finals, and finals. All rounds are aggregate, except the finals.

So, a long story short, all teams get a shot. This is true regardless of which league they are from or how "good" that league is relative to the other leagues. The catch is that the lesser leagues have a longer road to travel and do not send as many teams. If we use this model for NCAA Division 1 football (bowl championship division), I think we have something interesting. The powerhouse conferences (SEC and BIG 12) would send more teams followed by the BIG 10 and PAC 10. The mid-majors would send a couple followed by the smaller conference such as the Sun Belt Conference. And, if a school is "too good" for a conference, we can award them the Notre Dame trophy of excellence and give them an NBC television contract.

See my next post for a "prototype" of this concept applied to college football.

How can Soccer Improve College Football? Part 2

2009-02-05T17:02:00.000-08:00

Now that I've described the European Champions League format (note, the aggregate scoring was not used for the below example, only one game is needed for football), it is time to apply that concept to college football. The first step is to rank the conferences to determine how many teams from each conference will qualify for the championship tournament. Here is a quick ranking that I put together based on 2008 for the conferences and the number of teams from each:

Tier 1

1) SEC (4 teams)

2) Big 12 (4 teams)

Tier 2

3) Pac 10 (3 teams)

4) Big East (3 teams)

Tier 3

5) Big 10 (2 teams)

6) WAC (2 teams)

7) ACC (2 teams)

Tier 4

8) Conf USA (1 team)

9) Mountain West (1 team)

10) Mid-American (1 team)

11) Sun Belt (1 team)

This gives us 24 teams in the tournament. Note that the tiers can be adjusted each season based on conference performance. Just as with the Champions League in Europe, the better teams will enter in later rounds. Here is a proposed breakdown for college football (based loosely on 2008 performance):

The first set of teams to enter:

24) Tier 4 Champion (Sun Belt - Troy)

23) Tier 4 Champion (Mid Am. - Ball State)

22) Tier 4 Champion (Mnt. West - Utah)

21) Tier 4 Champion (Conf USA - East Carolina)

20) Tier 1 3rd Runner Up (Big 12 - Missouri)

19) Tier 1 3rd Runner Up (SEC - Ole Miss)

18) Tier 2 2nd Runner Up (Big East - West Virginia)

17) Tier 2 2nd Runner Up (Pac 10 - Oregon)

The teams to enter Round 2:

16) Tier 3 Runner Up (ACC - Boston College)

15) Tier 3 Runner Up (Big 10 - Ohio State)

14) Tier 3 Runner Up (WAC - Fresno State)

13) Tier 1 2nd Runner Up (SEC - Georgia)

12) Tier 1 2nd Runner Up (Big 12 - Texas Tech)

11) Tier 2 Runner Up (Big East - Pitt)

10) Tier 2 Runner up (Pac 10 - Oregon State)

9) Tier 3 Champion (lowest ranked of the three tier 3 champs) (WAC - Boise State)

Round 3 new entries:

8) Tier 3 Champion (ACC - Virginia Tech)

7) Tier 3 Champion (Big 10 - Penn State)

6) Tier 1 Runner Up (SEC - Alabama)

5) Tier 1 Runner Up (Big 12 - Texas)

4) Tier 2 Champion (Big East - Cincinnati)

3) Tier 2 Champion (Pac 10 - USC)

Quarterfinal entries:

2) Tier 1 Champion (Big 12 - Oklahoma)

1) Tier 1 Champion (SEC - Florida)

Now we have the teams and when they enter. My next step was to simulate the tournament. Using a random number generator I randomly paired the teams for each round up and through the quarterfinals. Then I used a crude algorithm to determine the winner. This algorithm used a weight system to give higher ranked teams an advantage since they would be a better team. Weights were equal to teams that entered in the same phase. So, for example, Texas and Cincy would not have a weight but Texas/Florida would be weighted in favor of Florida. If Florida were to play Utah, a more severe weight would be installed since Utah entered in the first round.

Now on to the tourney!

Round 1

Missouri beats Ball State

Utah beats Oregon

Troy beats West Virginia

Ole Miss beats East Carolina

The four winners (MU, Utah, Troy, Ole Miss) move to Round 2 with the Round 2 entrants. Again, all teams were randomly paired for round 2.

Round 2

Missouri beats Oregon State

Texas Tech beats Georgia

Boston College beats Troy

Ohio State beats Pitt

Utah beats Boise State

Old Miss beats Fresno State

Same thing for Round 3

Ohio State upsets Cincy

Penn State over Alabama

Boston College upsets Texas

Utah beats Missouri

Virginia Tech beats USC

Quarterfinals (the final two teams enter, last round to use a random draw)

Ohio State beats Boston College

Florida beats Utah

Oklahoma beats Virginia Tech

Penn St beats Texas Tech

Semi Finals

Ohio St beats Florida

Penn St beats Oklahoma

Finals

Penn St wins over Ohio State.

So there you go. Obviously this would need some tweaking. Overall rankings might be needed and seeding each round might make for more fair match-ups. The Utah/Missouri matchup shows this as two early entry teams play in a later round. On the other hand, the random draw creates a fair bit of excitement and adds an element of surprise.

You can also argue how the teams are initially entered and the feasibility of this working with the current season structure. Teams would have to cut out some none conference games. Also, it would be idea if the conferences all had the same number of teams and played the same number of games and determined their champions in a similar manner.

Leave comments and let me know how you'd tweak it up!

Thoughts on The Chiefs Quarterback Situation

2009-02-02T12:41:00.000-08:00

The latest rumor following the Chiefs around this off-season is that now they are going to trade for Matt Cassell of New England. This is a mistake for several reasons.

1) The System. Cassell was plugged into a system that featured Randy Moss and Wes Welker at wide receiver. After those two receivers joined the Patriots, Tom Brady's passer rating increased by 30 points! 30!!! In other words, if a QB has great receivers, he's going to be a better player. Cassell's 2008 rating was nearly 30 points less than Brady's 2007 rating (117 vs 89). Plug in any QB into the Pats system and they will put up good numbers.

2) Experience. He's only played one year since high school. You hear draft critics say that a players stock will drop if he's only been a starter for one year in college. This should be true in the pros, too.

3) Expectations. Cassell had zero expectations to fulfill in Boston last year. Brady is face of the team. When he went down, many people dismissed the season. Kansas City has more rabid fans than New England. The Chiefs have been average for several years now. The city wants a winner and if they don't see results after four games, things will get nasty.

4) Pride. Former Chiefs general manager Carl Peterson was run out of town partly because people felt he was too stubborn and did things just to prove he can. Examples include not paying draft picks and holding on to players that he drafted just to try and show people he didn't make a mistake by drafting them (Larry Johnson, anybody?). Bring in new general manager Scott Pioli. He drafted Cassell with the last pick of the draft. By bringing him to Kansas City, he starts off the bat with a "pride player." If Cassell were brought in and was a bust - this would be bad for the credibility of the new GM.

These are all reasons why the Chiefs should look elsewhere or stick with Thigpen at quarterback. Thigpen isn't the stereotypical superstar QB, but he did put up huge points with a suspect offensive line. If the Chiefs keep their draft picks, enhance the offensive line and maybe pick up another receiver then their offense will be good enough to win games. The defense is the real problem with the team and should require most of the focus this off-season.

Goodnight Phoenix!

2008-12-02T11:46:00.000-08:00

Saturday was our last attempt to contact Phoenix. We last heard from our lander on November 2nd. A massive dust storm and thick cloud cover drained our batteries and made it impossible to continue to operate the Mars lander. This was expected but we were hoping to exceed expectations by another 30 days or so. Anyway, we returned lots of good science and look forward to seeing what the science teams learn from those data in the coming months.

Joe Stehly's Week 13 2008 NFL Expert Picks

2008-11-25T14:59:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 11-5
Season: 50-24 [68%]

Tennessee at Detroit
PICK: TENNESSEE

Seattle at Dallas
PICK: DALLAS

Arizona at Philadelphia
PICK: ARIZONA

San Francisco at Buffalo
PICK: BUFFALO

Baltimore at Cincinnatti
PICK: BALTIMORE

Carolina at Green Bay
PICK: GREEN BAY

Miami at St. Louis
PICK: MIAMI

Indy at Cleveland
PICK: INDY

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
PICK: TAMPA BAY

New York Giants at Washington
PICK: NEW YORK

Atlanta at San Diego
PICK: SAN DIEGO

Denver at New York Jets
PICK: NEW YORK JETS

Kansas City at Oakland
PICK: OAKLAND

Pittsburgh at New England
PICK: NEW ENGLAND

Chicago at Minnesota
PICK: CHICAGO

Jacksonville at Houston
PICK: JACKSONVILLE

Joe Stehly's NFL 2008 Week 12 Picks

2008-11-18T09:39:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 10-6

Season: 39-19 [67.2%]

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

PICK: Pittsburgh

Philadelphia at Baltimore

PICK: Baltimore

Houston at Cleveland

PICK: Cleveland

San Francisco at Dallas

PICK: Dallas

Tampa Bay at Detroit

PICK: Tampa Bay

Minnesota at Jacksonville

PICK: Minnesota

Buffalo at Kansas City

UPSET PICK: Kansas City

New England at Miami

PICK: New England

Chicago at St. Louis

PICK: Chicago

New York Jets at Tennessee

PICK: Tennessee

Oakland at Denver

PICK: Denver

Carolina at Atlanta

PICK: Carolina

New York Giants at Arizona

PICK: New York Giants

Washington at Seattle

PICK: Washington

Indy at San Diego

PICK: Indy

Green Bay at New Orleans

PICK: New Orleans

Top Ten List #1 - Nintendo Games

2008-11-14T12:35:00.000-08:00

Top Ten Nintendo Entertainment System [8 bit] Games of All Time

[in Joe's opinion]

10. Jackal

9. Contra

8. Tecmo Super Bowl

7. Super Mario Brothers 2

6. Zelda II: The Adventure of Link

5. Super Mario Brothers

4. Dragon Warrior

3. The Legend of Zelda

2. Dragon Warrior 3

1. Mike Tyson's Punch-out!!!

Now I realize that Super Mario Brothers 3 is considered the best game by most people. I liked the game and recongnize is greatness, but I never was addicted to it. Also, the MegaMan games were great, but I never quite got all that into them.

A Day in the Life - On Mars

2008-11-12T12:53:00.001-08:00

I read the news today - oh boy - and NASA has officially announced that the Mars Phoenix Lander has completed its mission operations.

I thought it would be fun to summarize what a day in the life of an engineer working on the lander looked like. Many friends and family have asked this question so here is my attempt at answering it-

Phoenix is a tactical and strategic mission. We start everyday with a baseline science plan. This is the strategic portion. For example, we want to trench with the robotic arm, take x number of images of the trench location before the dig and x number of images after the dig, take pressure and temperature readings, etc.... All of this is known as "the plan." Many more details are included in the plan, but they aren't the most exciting.

The tactical portion is where is gets fun. We must react what happened the day before and make sure that everything from the strategic plan is still valid and worth commanding.

Now you need to know how all of this fits together. To do this, we need to understand how Phoenix operates. Details will be vague here to comply with international trade and arms regulations. The lander wakes up in the morning and sleeps in the evening. In the morning, it receives its commands so that it knows what to do during the day. Then during the morning and into the afternoon, it carries out those science activities as defined in the commands that it was sent. Finally, in the evening it sends its data back to earth.

In order for this to happen, the engineers and scientists must work during the middle of the Martian night. The shift starts as Phoenix is sending its data home. Then, we look at that data and the strategic "plan" to come up with a finalized plan for the next day's operations. This plan is a hybrid of the initial science objectives for the day and also based on the state of the lander from the recently received data. We work all [Mars] night and uplink the plan in command form early the next Martian morning. Then we go home and sleep during the Martian day and do the whole thing over again once the shift starts back up again.

So it really is a simple model. Now throw in the wrench that a Martian day [or sol, as we call it] is 24 hrs 39.5 minutes long. This means that if we start our shift at 9 am on Monday, our shift starts at 9:40 am on Tuesday and 10:20 am on Wendesday, etc, etc, etc. Our start time is the same with respect to the Mars clock, but different from the Earth's point of view by 40 minutes each day - this is known as "Mars time" in our Phoenix [and MER and MSL] worldview.

So that is basically the model we followed all summer long. When you throw in all the surprises that Mars holds - both good and bad - it turns into a very unique experience.

Joe Stehly's NFL 2008 Week 11 Picks

2008-11-12T10:12:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 12-2

Season: 29-13

New York Jets @ New England

PICK: New England

Denver @ Atlanta

PICK: Atlanta

Detroit @ Carolina

PICK: Carolina

Philadelphia @ Cincinnati

PICK: Philadelphia

New Orleans @ Kansas City

PICK: New Orleans

Baltimore @ New York Giants

PICK: New York

Minnesota @ Tampa Bay

PICK: Tampa Bay

Oakland @ Miami

PICK: Miami

Chicago@ Green Bay

PICK: Chicago

Houston @ Indy

PICK: Indy

St. Louis @ San Francisco

PICK: San Francisco

Arizona @ Seattle

PICK: Arizona

Tennessee @ Jacksonville

Upset PICK: Jacksonville

San Diego @ Pittsburgh

PICK: Pittsburgh

Dallas @ Washington

PICK: Washington

Cleveland @ Buffalo

PICK: Cleveland

Joe Stehly's NFL 2008 Week 10 Expert Picks

2008-11-04T11:49:00.000-08:00

Last Week: 10-4

Season: 17-11

Denver at Cleveland

PICK: Denver

New Orleans at Atlanta

PICK: New Orleans

Tennessee at Chicago

UPSET PICK: Chicago

Jacksonville at Detroit

PICK: Jacksonville

Seattle at Miami

PICK: Miami

Green Bay at Minnesota

PICK: Minnesota

Buffalo at New England

PICK: New England

St. Louis at NY Jets

PICK: NY Jets

Baltimore at Houston

PICK: Baltimore

Carolina at Oakland

PICK: Carolina

Indianapolis at Pittsburgh

PICK: Indy

Kansas City at San Diego

PICK: San Diego

NY Giants at Philadelphia

PICK: NY Giants

San Francisco at Arizona

PICK: Arizona

Joe Stehly's NFL 2008 Week 9 Expert Picks

2008-10-30T14:19:00.000-07:00

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 7-7

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

The Jets nearly lost to the Chiefs at home last week. The Bills were upset by the Dolphins. Look for Buffalo to rebound against an overachieving Jets team.

PICK: Bills

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

The Bears aren't great but the Lions will need to wait at least one more week for their first win of the season

PICK: Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals

See above....Jags over the Bengals

PICK: Jags

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

This was my toughest pick of the week. I think the Browns are about to turn it around so look for them to pull one out against the Ravens.

PICK: Browns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs

No comment

PICK: Bucs

Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings absolutely need this game if they have any chance of making the playoffs. A preseason Superbowl pick, the Vikings have not lived up to expectations.

PICK: Vikings

Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams

The Rams went into New England and nearly won despite several no calls by the officials going in the Pats favor. Sadly, if the Rams beat the Cardinals they will have playoff hopes in footballs weakest division.

UPSET PICK: Rams

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans

Boring game, will be won by the Titans.

PICK: Titans

Miami Dolphins at Denver Broncos

PICK: Dolphins

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

PICK: Giants

Atlanda Falcons at Oakland Raiders

PICK: Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks

PICK: Eagles

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

PICK: Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins

PICK: Steelers

Joe Stehly's NFL 2008 Week 8 Expert Picks

2008-10-24T12:11:00.000-07:00

Oakland at Baltimore

My pick for the most boring game of the week. The Ravens should have an easy time with this game. Russell vs Flacco could be interesting.....

PICK: Baltimore

Arizona at Carolina

This will be a fun one. Arizona is turning into a very entertaining offensive team - lots of points and lots of turnovers. Carolina by 10

PICK: Carolina

Tampa Bay at Dallas

Dallas is becoming dysfunctional and Tampa Bay is too good of a team for the Cowboys to easily bounce back after being embarrassed by the Rams last week.

PICK: Tampa Bay

Washington at Detroit

Washington in a blowout

PICK: Washington

Buffalo at Miami

Buffalo, but it will be a close one - a good candidate for upset of the week

PICK: Buffalo

St. Louis at New England

My upset pick of the week. The Rams are hot and I don't like the Patriots or any team associated with Boston - because of that, Rams 27 Pats 24 with a Dante Hall kick return

UPSET PICK: St. Louis

San Diego at New Orleans [in London]

Two teams playing well below expectations [see Browns/Jags as well]. This one will be from England so it should be fun. The Saints are without their two starting RBs if Deuce does, in fact, get suspended for substance abuse so my pick is the Chargers

PICK: San Diego

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS at New York Jets

The Chiefs are starting their 3rd string quarterback and Larry Johnson is once again benched because he acts like a child. The defense was absolutely run over last week. This could be another blowout. I may not watch because I'm tired of Favre.....

PICK: New York

Atlanta at Philadelphia

This one could be a close game but the Eagles need it more and are playing at home. The Eagles by a touchdown

PICK: Philadelphia

Cleveland at Jacksonville

Two more underachieving teams. Early in the season this was to have been a marquee matchup of two teams looking to upset long running division champions.......not so much. Jacksonville should win this one.

PICK: Jacksonville

Cincinnati at Houston

The Bengals are just bad. Their defense was never very strong and now that Palmer has been hurting, they are in trouble. Until Palmer recovers, they will not win a game

PICK: Houston

New York Giants at Pittsburgh

Early in the year I thought New York was no better than a 9-7 team. Look for them to struggle down the stretch.

PICK: Pittsburgh

Seattle at San Francisco

San Francisco will play off the momentum generated by firing head coach Mike Nolan.

PICK: San Francisco

Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts will officially pass the torch to the Titans. Where has Marvin Harrison gone?

PICK: Tennessee